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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.